Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f3a…9c1e sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$381 (+35%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$491
14 days+$496
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$375
other 21% +$38
crypto 3% −$25
culture 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +288.6% +251.6% 40% 40% +310.2%
≤30d 23 +50.8% +36.4% 39% 39% +73.6%
≤90d 36 +10.0% -0.5% 33% 33% +23.5%
all 36 +10.0% -0.5% 33% 33% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 33% +23.5%
10% -10.0% 33% +11.7%
15% -18.7% 33% +0.9%
20% -26.7% 28% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$25 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage48d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$514 +1031%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$58 +712%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $26 +$25 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 +$52 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $23 +$17 +73%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $33 +$28 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $25 +$30 +119%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 26 $35 +$29 +83%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 12 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 11 $38 +$18 +47%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoff May 08 $62 +$63 +101%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 06 $43 +$19 +43%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 06 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix May 03 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $19 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $26 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $30 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 8d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $26 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 10d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $14 11d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 57¢ $23 12d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 51¢ $33 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 45¢ $28 13d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Astralis 54¢ $33 14d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 16d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 56¢ $30 17d
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY magic 45¢ $25 21d
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act BUY TYLOO 54¢ $35 25d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOUD 38¢ $20 25d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 26d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 26d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 26d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $26 37d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $30 38d
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers BUY DN SOOPers Challengers 67¢ $38 39d
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 65¢ $51 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.83 · official $64.83 (match) · 66 history records