Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f3c…3203
sports · 349 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$167 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)344 / 349
History coverage688d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 5 History 344 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$18
14 days+$13
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 30¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $6 +$9 +155%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $2 +$2 +119%
Lions vs. Chiefs Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Chiefs vs. Chargers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Apr 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Vikings vs. Chargers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Magic Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Vikings vs. Steelers Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-17? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Patriots vs. Dolphins Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $53 +$55 +103%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jan 26 $5 +$7 +144%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Jan 22 $5 +$4 +72%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $4 +$6 +122%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jan 17 $5 +$5 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% +$108
other 20% −$94
crypto 18% −$181
politics 9% +$30
world 2% −$34
economics 1% +$17
tech 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 5h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 38¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 31¢ $5 12d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 93¢ $15 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 55¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 25d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 29¢ $5 32d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 45¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $20 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 126d
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) BUY Thunder 45¢ $9 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 129d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +80.5% +63.3% 75% 75% +25.3%
≤30d 10 +22.5% +10.8% 60% 50% +10.1%
≤90d 44 -62.9% -66.4% 18% 16% -77.6%
all 344 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 47% -14.6%
10% -18.5% 44% -22.8%
15% -26.3% 40% -30.3%
20% -33.6% 36% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.79 · official $84.79 (match) · 775 history records