Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f42…bf3b crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$630 (-10%) realized −$615 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%88W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$128
sports 29% −$226
other 5% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.6% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤30d 1 +14.6% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤90d 29 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 34% -37.3%
all 153 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 47% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 47% -18.8%
10% -16.6% 39% -26.6%
15% -24.7% 31% -33.7%
20% -32.1% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses88 / 65
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage116d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $135 +$20 +15%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playo Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 18 $259 −$259 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $61 +$46 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 16 $25 +$36 +146%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $51 +$110 +215%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 15 $49 −$32 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 07 $17 −$10 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 07 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 07 $14 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $68 +$48 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 25 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 25 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 25 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 25 $4 +$5 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 25 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 25 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $27 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 19 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 19 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 19 $14 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 19 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 19 $17 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 19 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 19 $34 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 19 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 16 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 16 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 12 $87 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 12 $81 +$5 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 4¢ $15 44m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 9¢ $15 47m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 38¢ $70 55m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $5 1h
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings SELL Mumbai Indians 66¢ $107 66d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 37¢ $61 66d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY FURIA 40¢ $25 66d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $127 66d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $34 66d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 95¢ $34 66d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 47¢ $17 67d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 67d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $14 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 75d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 75d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 97¢ $116 79d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 56¢ $68 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 378 history records