Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f43…68d8 crypto 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-3%) realized −$349 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%107W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,056
14 days−$1,061
30 days−$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$120
other 23% +$678
sports 11% −$203
tech 7% −$772
world 6% −$65
finance 4% −$64
weather 0% −$22
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -49.9% -54.6% 25% 25% -64.0%
≤30d 29 +6.1% -4.0% 41% 41% -40.2%
≤90d 188 +6.5% -3.7% 57% 49% -13.5%
all 188 +6.5% -3.7% 57% 49% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 49% -13.5%
10% -12.9% 36% -21.8%
15% -21.3% 24% -29.4%
20% -29.0% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$41 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses107 / 81
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 195
History coverage85d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 51¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+67%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $60 $40 −$20 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $722 −$678 -94%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 24 $122 −$103 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $20 −$1 -7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $109 +$16 +14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $60 +$19 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $141 +$68 +48%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $72 −$27 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$138 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$41 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $157 +$89 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $61 +$44 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 14 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 13 $101 +$34 +34%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 07 $52 +$13 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $20 +$9 +46%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $15 −$1 -8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $30 +$4 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $50 +$28 +57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $175 +$61 +35%
Hellas Verona FC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Apr 25 $18 +$16 +89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $35 +$3 +10%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 22 $11 −$8 -78%
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $10 +$7 +70%
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 Apr 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Apr 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Pisa SC vs. Genoa CFC: Draw at halftime? Apr 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw? Apr 19 $10 −$5 -47%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $22 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $77 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Brandon Nakashima 53¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $91 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $48 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $92 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $60 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $45 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up $5 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $41 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $64 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $43 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.27 · official $265.03 (match) · 809 history records