Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2f48…c790 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$722 (-3%) realized −$718 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%110W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$805
politics 29% +$75
world 22% −$83
culture 6% +$37
economics 6% +$42
sports 2% −$24
crypto 1% +$11
weather 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.4% +11.7% 69% 69% -17.1%
≤30d 15 +23.0% +11.3% 73% 67% -15.5%
≤90d 34 +21.8% +10.2% 76% 65% -9.9%
all 135 +5.5% -4.5% 81% 40% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 40% -12.5%
10% -13.7% 27% -20.9%
15% -22.0% 15% -28.6%
20% -29.7% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$122 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses110 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage570d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $113 +$37 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 +$42 +55%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $140 +$80 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$31 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $277 −$274 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$32 +48%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $146 +$46 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$8 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $61 +$18 +30%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $149 +$51 +34%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 −$40 -40%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $104 +$46 +44%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi May 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? May 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 11 $15 +$35 +238%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $53 +$17 +32%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $18 +$9 +48%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $17 +$3 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $163 +$123 +75%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? May 11 $89 +$29 +33%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 24 $68 +$20 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $491 −$297 -60%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 25 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-04? Dec 05 $121 −$112 -93%
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney in November? Dec 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03? Dec 04 $60 +$51 +86%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $100 +$26 +26%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 30 $220 +$21 +10%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Nov 30 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 21 $40 +$3 +8%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 11 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-10? Nov 11 $99 +$33 +33%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $68 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $75 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $113 11h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $67 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $44 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $192 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $27 38d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $38 38d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 38d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 38d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $83 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $60 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 38d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.45 · official $183.45 (match) · 909 history records