Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f48…b21e sports 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$252 (-52%) realized −$38 · open −$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$40
politics 48% −$214
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -45.3% -50.5% 38% 38% -35.3%
≤30d 16 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 44% -25.1%
≤90d 16 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 44% -25.1%
all 16 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 44% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 44% -25.1%
10% -47.0% 31% -32.3%
15% -52.1% 19% -38.8%
20% -56.8% 19% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $225 $11 −$214 (-95%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$6 +72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $25 +$6 +23%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$12 +61%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $59 −$39 -65%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 10 $7 −$6 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $39 +$4 +11%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $17 +$19 +112%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 48¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 72¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 14¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 11¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 16¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 41¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 34¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 11¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 46¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 78¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 16¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $5 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 70¢ $8 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $5 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 42¢ $23 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $20 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $7 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 68¢ $25 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $20 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 36¢ $19 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $27 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 30¢ $10 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $5 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 43¢ $9 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $2 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $5 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 47¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.34 · official $12.34 (match) · 49 history records