trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -32.0% | -38.4% | 33% | 33% | -30.3% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -45.1% | -50.3% | 26% | 22% | -38.9% |
| all | 23 | -45.1% | -50.3% | 26% | 22% | -38.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -50.3% | 22% | -38.9% |
| 10% | -55.1% | 17% | -44.7% |
| 15% | -59.4% | 13% | -50.1% |
| 20% | -63.4% | 9% | -55.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $508 | $454 | −$53 (-11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 45¢ | 56¢ | $200 | $249 | +$49 (+25%) |
| Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? | Yes | 17¢ | 3¢ | $964 | $144 | −$821 (-85%) |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 16¢ | $180 | $116 | −$64 (-35%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 4¢ | $440 | $57 | −$383 (-87%) |
| Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $36 | −$64 (-64%) |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 11¢ | $29 | $18 | −$11 (-39%) |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | Yes | 24¢ | 12¢ | $30 | $16 | −$14 (-47%) |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $14 | −$6 (-28%) |
| Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-19%) |
| Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $3 | −$7 (-71%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 01 | $403 | +$103 | +26% |
| Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl | May 23 | $102 | +$186 | +183% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 20 | $21 | −$20 | -96% |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | May 19 | $104 | −$100 | -96% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | May 19 | $129 | −$125 | -97% |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? | May 19 | $289 | −$281 | -97% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | May 18 | $115 | −$34 | -29% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 17 | $47 | −$46 | -98% |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? | May 17 | $51 | −$50 | -97% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 05 | $32 | −$32 | -98% |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? | Apr 30 | $30 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? | Apr 29 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Apr 29 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 29 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Apr 29 | $65 | −$63 | -97% |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | Apr 23 | $100 | +$21 | +21% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Apr 21 | $24 | +$76 | +317% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 20 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig? | Apr 13 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $53 | +$19 | +36% |