Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f49…3ff7 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% $0
other 33% +$1
crypto 4% +$2
politics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 20 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 10% -8.6%
10% -14.0% 5% -17.4%
15% -22.3% 5% -25.3%
20% -29.9% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.83 per $1 lost it wins $6.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage447d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? Apr 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 27 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in April? Apr 17 $2 +$2 +71%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5d
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? BUY No 86¢ $2 360d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 370d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 374d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 98¢ $8 377d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 394d
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 415d
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 415d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $10 416d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 416d
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? SELL No 98¢ $9 416d
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? BUY No 99¢ $9 416d
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? BUY No 93¢ $8 423d
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani SELL No 99¢ $9 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.55 · official $32.55 (match) · 48 history records