Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f4a…102c other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-2%) realized −$168 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$41
other 38% −$118
politics 4% −$18
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 1 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 1 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
all 88 -20.7% -28.2% 52% 14% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 14% -11.2%
10% -35.1% 10% -19.7%
15% -41.4% 6% -27.4%
20% -47.1% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage228d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $181 $180 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 12 $538 −$34 -6%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 12 $413 +$24 +6%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M Feb 11 $17 −$14 -80%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 11 $1,022 −$64 -6%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $110 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $103 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $212 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 02 $102 +$1 +1%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $112 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $111 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $319 +$14 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $211 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 29 $111 $0 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $108 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $116 +$2 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $114 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $302 +$15 +5%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $113 +$4 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 22 $305 +$3 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jan 22 $267 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $457 −$33 -7%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the Jan 21 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jan 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 20 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Jan 20 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $49 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $45 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $188 +$6 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $422 −$7 -2%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $46 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $256 +$29 +11%
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 14 $8 +$2 +18%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $105 +$1 +0%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9? Jan 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 05 $77 −$5 -7%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Jan 04 $34 −$7 -20%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Jan 02 $431 −$30 -7%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Jan 02 $12 −$4 -37%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30? Jan 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January? Jan 01 $20 $0 -1%
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $87 +$20 +24%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $17 +$12 +69%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Dec 30 $44 −$4 -9%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $101 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $98 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $80 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $78 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $24 2h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 26¢ $283 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 30¢ $327 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 31¢ $26 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 31¢ $16 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 30¢ $2 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 31¢ $48 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 32¢ $3 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 30¢ $97 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M SELL Yes 60¢ $323 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 BUY Yes $4 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M SELL Yes $4 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 54¢ $204 128d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $204 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M BUY Yes $17 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 63¢ $15 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 25¢ $9 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 63¢ $88 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 30¢ $34 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 30¢ $23 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 30¢ $17 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 30¢ $24 128d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 SELL Yes 30¢ $2 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.60 · official $183.60 (match) · 430 history records