Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f4c…85a1 weather 174 markets active 1d ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%92W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$20
weather 41% −$3
sports 11% −$16
world 3% −$2
politics 2% −$16
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 27% -4.5%
≤30d 57 -5.3% -14.4% 47% 39% -15.3%
≤90d 113 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 42% -10.2%
all 174 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 40% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 40% -11.7%
10% -22.3% 32% -20.2%
15% -29.8% 26% -27.9%
20% -36.7% 18% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses92 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage619d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 67¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 450 history records