Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f4e…1fb8
sports · 229 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,022 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$538 · open +$914
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39,513
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$914
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses40 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1,038
Open positions149
Markets (closed)103 / 229
History coverage1d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day2855.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 149 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$538
7 days−$538
14 days−$538
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 90¢ 97¢ $5,947 $6,471 +$524 (+9%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 80¢ 88¢ $2,687 $2,947 +$260 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 85¢ 92¢ $1,826 $1,969 +$143 (+8%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ 100¢ $1,637 $1,691 +$53 (+3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 64¢ 72¢ $1,306 $1,448 +$142 (+11%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 80¢ 100¢ $1,130 $1,403 +$273 (+24%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 89¢ 100¢ $1,160 $1,304 +$145 (+12%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Over 23¢ 38¢ $759 $1,264 +$505 (+67%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 83¢ 100¢ $981 $1,183 +$201 (+21%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $768 $800 +$32 (+4%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 87¢ 88¢ $742 $755 +$14 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 64¢ 46¢ $889 $632 −$257 (-29%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 48¢ $672 $607 −$66 (-10%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 100¢ $276 $577 +$300 (+109%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 73¢ 100¢ $412 $561 +$148 (+36%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ 52¢ $434 $549 +$114 (+26%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 61¢ 72¢ $435 $517 +$82 (+19%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 100¢ $164 $453 +$290 (+177%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Under 45¢ 100¢ $185 $414 +$229 (+123%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 72¢ 96¢ $298 $397 +$99 (+33%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 83¢ 100¢ $300 $360 +$60 (+20%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 67¢ 51¢ $472 $357 −$114 (-24%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 46¢ $357 $352 −$5 (-2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 36¢ 24¢ $504 $324 −$179 (-36%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) New York Yankees 56¢ 84¢ $215 $320 +$105 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Libya win on 2026-03-31? Jun 13 $4 −$9 -200%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -200%
Will Liberia win on 2026-03-31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -203%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-02? Jun 13 $1 −$3 -202%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $29 −$25 -87%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $53 −$8 -16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $48 +$20 +41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $199 +$29 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $189 +$3 +2%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 13 $74 +$2 +3%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $145 −$65 -45%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$4 -60%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $193 +$81 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $113 −$108 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $125 −$5 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $117 +$14 +12%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $164 +$97 +59%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $308 −$291 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $190 −$113 -60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $87 −$27 -31%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $166 +$146 +88%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 13 $78 −$67 -86%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $133 −$123 -92%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $62 +$37 +59%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3,020 −$228 -8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $128 −$30 -23%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1,849 −$303 -16%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $5 +$15 +285%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $185 −$123 -67%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $51 −$49 -96%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $642 +$80 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $75 +$244 +326%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $109 +$164 +151%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $310 −$81 -26%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $38 −$15 -40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $146 +$53 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $269 −$146 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$175
other 3% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 64¢ $58 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 64¢ $161 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 97¢ $0 0m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $13 0m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $5 0m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $5 0m
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 12¢ $14 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $1 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $12 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $32 0m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 95¢ $1 0m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 91¢ $2 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $3 0m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 91¢ $5 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $15 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $24 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $1 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $4 1m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 31¢ $15 1m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 69¢ $12 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 1m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 69¢ $22 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $24 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $24 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +40.4% +27.1% 39% 31% -14.6%
≤30d 103 +40.4% +27.1% 39% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 103 +40.4% +27.1% 39% 31% -14.6%
all 103 +40.4% +27.1% 39% 31% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2855.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.1% 31% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here +14.9% 26% -22.8%
15% +3.8% 22% -30.2%
20% -6.4% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,513.05 · official $39,450.45 (match) · 3500 history records