Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2F 0x2f4f…075f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$41 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip

Net edge+58%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$304per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$1,396now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+64.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+81.5%	+64.2%	50%	50%	+45.2%
≤30d	2	+81.5%	+64.2%	50%	50%	+45.2%
≤90d	2	+81.5%	+64.2%	50%	50%	+45.2%
all	2	+81.5%	+64.2%	50%	50%	+45.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+64.2%	50%	+45.2%
10%	+48.5%	50%	+31.3%
15%	+34.2%	50%	+18.6%
20%	+21.0%	50%	+7.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +82% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,396

Realized+$41

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$304

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	Over	16¢	16¢	$500	$484	−$16 (-3%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	Yes	24¢	24¢	$472	$473	+$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$450	$439	−$11 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 16	$9	+$23	+263%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$472	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	24¢	$497	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	16¢	$528	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$32	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$9	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$11	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,396.33 · official $1,396.33 (match) · 8 history records