Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f53…d5ab sports 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$389 (+3%) realized +$482 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%176W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$165
14 days−$732
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$63
other 0% −$24
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 43% -4.6%
≤30d 397 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 43% -7.8%
≤90d 398 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 43% -8.1%
all 398 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 43% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 43% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 43% -16.9%
15% -32.7% 41% -24.9%
20% -39.3% 36% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$482
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses176 / 222
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions2
Markets (closed)398 / 400
History coverage34d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$5 -14%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $39 +$16 +42%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $24 +$16 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $48 +$44 +92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 +$31 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $57 +$25 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$60 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $207 −$8 -4%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $17 +$13 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $17 +$33 +188%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $17 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $4 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $17 −$5 -30%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $55 −$38 -69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$41 +79%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $178 +$30 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$17 +77%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $9 +$10 +109%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $44 −$7 -15%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $79 +$33 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$10 +169%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $15 +$23 +159%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $42 +$24 +57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$16 +105%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$15 +73%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$25 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $21 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $42 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL FOKUS 100¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie SELL Walczaki 100¢ $40 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 16¢ $3 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $33 13h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 60¢ $24 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 56¢ $23 14h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 44¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $16 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 10¢ $2 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $82 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 56¢ $57 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $18 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 34¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 38¢ $11 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $16 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $8 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 90¢ $134 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 80¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 890 history records