Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f5a…d5da crypto 620 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+1%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%196W / 424L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$214
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$146
sports 8% +$537
other 6% −$6
culture 3% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +28.4% +16.2% 24% 24% +4.2%
≤30d 80 +19.1% +7.8% 22% 22% -7.1%
≤90d 334 -44.7% -50.0% 16% 15% -48.8%
all 620 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 30% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 30% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 30% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 28% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses196 / 424
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 620
History coverage133d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$84 +543%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$34 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$26 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$31 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$78 +1040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$70 +473%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $28 −$16 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$35 +170%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$87 +249%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $47 +$238 +505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$121 +473%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$133 +520%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$18 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3291 history records