Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f5b…e747 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1070 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$4,225 (+3%) realized +$4,083 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +629% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +439% what you keep after slip
Net edge+439%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%67W / 39L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,859per market
Trades / day1070.4pace
Fees−$1,647est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$17,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,835
sports 43% +$1,002
world 1% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1070 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+559.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +628.7% +559.3% 63% 38% -6.0%
≤30d 106 +628.7% +559.3% 63% 38% -6.0%
≤90d 106 +628.7% +559.3% 63% 38% -6.0%
all 106 +628.7% +559.3% 63% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1070.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +559.3% 38% -6.0%
10% +496.2% 38% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here +438.6% 36% -23.2%
20% +385.8% 36% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +629% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$660) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +379% → late +879% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$19 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17,596
Realized+$4,083
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses67 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,647
Open positions22
Markets (closed)106 / 81
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,859
Trades / day1070.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $4,270 $4,272 +$2 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,990 $2,996 +$6 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 57¢ $2,944 $2,970 +$26 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $2,052 $2,081 +$29 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $1,740 $1,725 −$15 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,026 $1,027 +$1 (+0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $430 $435 +$5 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $398 $403 +$5 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 59¢ 58¢ $367 $364 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 49¢ 50¢ $326 $330 +$3 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 76¢ 50¢ $305 $202 −$103 (-34%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $96 $198 +$102 (+106%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $192 $175 −$16 (-8%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 70¢ 70¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $155 $152 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 62¢ 62¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 +33%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 −$52 -21049%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $0 +$100 +26189%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 −$15 -15720%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $0 +$120 +45471%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$109 +62429%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $0 +$55 +93535%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 +$60 +34136%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$57 +37537%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$47 +28378%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $0 −$28 -29662%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 18 $0 +$10 +10574%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $0 +$30 +8396%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $0 −$65 -124238%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $0 +$26 +23120%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$60 +108634%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 +$30 +63010%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $0 $0 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 18 $0 +$40 +65796%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 18 $0 +$30 +41577%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 −$45 -16440%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 +$27 +71220%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 −$109 -135079%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 +$60 +166101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$12 +1554%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$60 +53089%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $0 +$85 +48675%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 18 $0 +$50 +81074%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Jun 18 $0 +$40 +68390%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 18 $0 +$2 +578%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 18 $0 −$38 -24468%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $1 −$40 -3721%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 18 $0 −$13 -2739%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 18 $0 +$35 +33268%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$101 +195022%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 −$3 -2228%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $0 $0 -78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $1 −$41 -7265%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 Jun 18 $1 −$5 -420%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 +$44 +37988%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,245 $0 -0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,828 −$45 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $925 +$25 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,975 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $102 22m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $72 23m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $114 25m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $24 34m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $168 34m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $480 34m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $415 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $415 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $151 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $245 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 49¢ $245 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,596.27 · official $17,588.65 (match) · 3500 history records