Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f5e…49ed other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,023 (-31%) realized −$1,009 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$449
economics 18% −$544
crypto 12% −$193
sports 10% +$191
politics 5% −$39
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% -25.2%
≤30d 13 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% -25.2%
≤90d 13 +23.8% +12.0% 23% 23% -25.2%
all 54 -21.6% -29.1% 15% 11% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 11% -43.6%
10% -35.9% 9% -49.0%
15% -42.1% 9% -53.9%
20% -47.7% 9% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$37 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$1,009
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage242d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 10¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $36 +$126 +353%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$201 +784%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $204 −$203 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 22-28? Dec 26 $138 −$12 -9%
US bank failure by November 30? Nov 02 $21 −$4 -19%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 02 $207 −$16 -8%
Another Canada election called in 2025? Nov 02 $22 −$4 -17%
US civil war in 2025? Nov 02 $14 −$2 -12%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Nov 02 $28 +$2 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 02 $84 −$24 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 02 $65 −$8 -13%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? Nov 02 $108 −$34 -31%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Nov 02 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 02 $313 −$109 -35%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 02 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 01 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 31 $308 +$35 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump pardon Diddy by October 31? Oct 30 $20 −$18 -90%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Oct 30 $19 −$12 -65%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 30 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Oct 30 $17 −$9 -54%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Oct 30 $18 −$6 -36%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Oct 30 $19 −$7 -37%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 30 $75 −$25 -33%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Oct 30 $25 −$3 -12%
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition Oct 30 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 30 $5 −$1 -17%
US x China tariff agreement by November 10? Oct 30 $21 −$4 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $178 −$178 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 28 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Oct 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 28 $20 +$3 +16%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 27 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2025? Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Oct 26 $43 +$207 +481%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 30m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $38 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $54 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 29h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 45h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $6 45h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 46h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $37 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.48 · official $110.48 (match) · 242 history records