Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f5e…3d5f crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$18 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$67
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$19
crypto 30% −$17
tech 11% −$44
world 9% +$17
sports 8% −$2
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -54.4% -58.8% 14% 14% -57.6%
≤90d 29 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 45% -18.0%
all 29 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 45% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 45% -18.0%
10% -15.8% 24% -25.8%
15% -24.0% 24% -33.0%
20% -31.4% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage63d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $115 $108 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -62%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? Jun 09 $25 −$16 -62%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Jun 09 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $79 −$27 -35%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 13 $9 +$18 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$10 +180%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $10 +$28 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 07 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 07 $16 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 07 $37 −$22 -60%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 06 $15 +$3 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 06 $52 +$39 +75%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 30 $10 −$2 -16%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $15 +$3 +20%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 29 $39 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $10 −$5 -54%
NBA Playoffs: Suns vs. Thunder Total Games O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the Patek Index hit $106,000 (HIGH) by April 30? Apr 26 $10 +$5 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 12d
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 12d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $29 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 23d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 73¢ $12 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 36d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 36d
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $11 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 36d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 36d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.81 · official $107.81 (match) · 88 history records