Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f5e…6dd8 crypto 404 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,710 (-12%) realized −$6,710 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%152W / 250L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$329
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$5,620
sports 20% −$3,412
other 5% +$336
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +14.6% +3.7% 44% 44% +7.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 187 -36.7% -42.7% 30% 27% -32.7%
all 402 -28.0% -34.8% 38% 32% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 32% -24.1%
10% -41.1% 29% -31.4%
15% -46.8% 23% -38.0%
20% -52.0% 21% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$95 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6,710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses152 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)402 / 404
History coverage149d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $73 +$121 +165%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $152 −$123 -81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$162 +226%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $178 −$175 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 +$87 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $196 +$326 +166%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $186 −$183 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $289 −$283 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $188 −$185 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $191 −$186 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $476 +$564 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $190 +$287 +152%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi May 20 $137 −$135 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 20 $184 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $157 −$39 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 20 $39 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 20 $234 −$100 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 20 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $336 −$328 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $193 −$188 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 05 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 05 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 05 $41 −$40 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) May 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor May 05 $101 +$78 +77%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Lucia Bronzetti May 05 $101 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 25 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 25 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 25 $68 +$24 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 25 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$7 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 43m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $73 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $60 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $178 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $9 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $119 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $124 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $521 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $196 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $186 6d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 33¢ $289 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $188 21d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 22¢ $191 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 34¢ $510 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $476 24d
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) SELL Thunder 100¢ $477 24d
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) BUY Thunder 39¢ $190 25d
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi BUY Kriish Tyagi 56¢ $137 31d
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka SELL Sasikumar Mukund 100¢ $131 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $14 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 1090 history records