Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f5f…f7ae sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$610 (+26%) realized +$542 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$762
crypto 11% −$240
other 9% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.4% +15.3% 80% 80% +15.2%
≤30d 10 +27.4% +15.3% 80% 80% +15.2%
≤90d 10 +27.4% +15.3% 80% 80% +15.2%
all 10 +27.4% +15.3% 80% 80% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 80% +15.2%
10% +4.3% 60% +4.1%
15% -5.8% 30% -5.9%
20% -15.0% 20% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$120 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 56¢ 99¢ $60 $106 +$46 (+77%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $378 +$81 +21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$243 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $403 +$117 +29%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $201 +$43 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$142 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $302 +$109 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 +$52 +34%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 +$50 +25%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $60 46m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $61 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $177 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $403 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 32h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $201 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $151 2d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $202 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.49 · official $188.49 (match) · 23 history records