Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f60…3a69 weather 798 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized +$71 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%696W / 93L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$15
14 days−$10
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$114
sports 8% +$5
crypto 2% −$50
other 2% −$21
world 0% −$147
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -2.7% -11.9% 94% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 570 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 768 -1.4% -10.7% 89% 3% -9.7%
all 789 -1.1% -10.5% 88% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,309
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses696 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions8
Markets (closed)789 / 798
History coverage100d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,097 $1,105 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $800 $806 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $141 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $131 $1 −$130 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $315 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $280 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $535 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $320 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 23m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 35¢ $1 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 25m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 36¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,309.42 · official $2,309.42 (match) · 2351 history records