Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f62…a670 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,782 (-14%) realized −$2,800 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$332
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,404
other 5% +$325
politics 1% +$105
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 33% -20.6%
≤90d 41 -16.8% -24.7% 37% 32% -21.2%
all 87 -23.9% -31.1% 34% 32% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 32% -23.2%
10% -37.7% 31% -30.6%
15% -43.7% 29% -37.3%
20% -49.3% 29% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$151 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$2,800
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)87 / 95
History coverage152d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 38¢ 44¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+14%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 14 $856 −$501 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $237 −$112 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $267 −$262 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$166 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $520 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $208 +$210 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $207 +$194 +94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$100 +97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $206 +$600 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $233 +$63 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $204 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $197 −$188 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET May 27 $37 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2AM ET May 19 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $21 −$16 -77%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 19? May 18 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $32 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12PM ET May 18 $39 +$43 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $10 +$18 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11AM ET May 18 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1PM ET Apr 28 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11AM ET Apr 28 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET Feb 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 27 $460 −$453 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9AM ET Jan 27 $548 +$137 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8AM ET Jan 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7AM ET Jan 27 $200 +$163 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6AM ET Jan 27 $300 +$157 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 27 $500 +$316 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 36m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 36m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 36m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 36m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 36m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $132 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $127 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $78 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $67 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $100 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $96 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 1¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.49 · official $238.49 (match) · 256 history records