Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2f63…6643 finance 872 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 519d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54,493 (+11%) realized +$54,427 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate86%746W / 117L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$166
14 days−$68
30 days+$5,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 34% +$30,598
world 26% +$5,859
other 14% +$5,769
economics 12% +$6,522
politics 6% −$110
sports 5% +$3,314
tech 3% −$561
culture 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$74
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.9% -16.6% 71% 14% -11.7%
≤30d 72 +33.1% +20.4% 85% 32% -0.6%
≤90d 303 +17.2% +6.0% 87% 36% -2.2%
all 863 +12.0% +1.3% 86% 33% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 33% +0.2%
10% -8.4% 17% -9.4%
15% -17.2% 10% -18.1%
20% -25.4% 8% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$552) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$222 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$5,313
Realized+$54,427
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses746 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions9
Markets (closed)863 / 872
History coverage519d ⚠
Avg bet$553
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 77¢ 86¢ $2,409 $2,717 +$308 (+13%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $1,700 $1,840 +$140 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 70¢ 83¢ $211 $249 +$38 (+18%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 91¢ 53¢ $95 $55 −$40 (-42%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Yes 82¢ 53¢ $54 $34 −$19 (-36%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 83¢ $133 $10 −$123 (-92%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 37¢ $250 $2 −$248 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $788 +$88 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $476 +$37 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 13 $312 −$5 -2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $575 +$31 +5%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $4,267 +$37 +1%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $450 −$354 -79%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $87 −$18 -21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $1,328 +$72 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $68 −$64 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1,427 +$74 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,164 +$36 +2%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%? May 30 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $498 +$109 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $443 +$129 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $443 +$93 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $443 +$56 +12%
Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $56 +$2 +3%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $196 +$10 +5%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $225 +$8 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $159 +$41 +26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $34 −$20 -59%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 28 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting? May 28 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 28 $25 +$36 +144%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 28 $14 +$23 +166%
Will Braze (BRZE) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $49 +$11 +21%
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $982 +$39 +4%
Will Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Bath & Body Works (BBWI) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $53 +$149 +283%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a May 27 $1,570 +$38 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $194 +$6 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 26 $27 +$7 +26%
Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings? May 26 $186 +$24 +13%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 26 $841 −$24 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $388 +$508 +131%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $388 +$770 +198%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $388 +$677 +174%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $388 +$892 +230%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $388 +$1,207 +311%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $388 +$1,020 +263%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $388 +$430 +111%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $388 +$1,149 +296%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $388 +$773 +199%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $388 +$576 +148%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $37 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $52 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $299 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $104 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $104 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $104 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $98 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $113 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $104 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $104 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $104 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $104 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 98¢ $307 46h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 75¢ $104 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 78¢ $104 3d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 20¢ $96 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 67¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $104 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 77¢ $104 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $104 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $104 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 71¢ $104 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 75¢ $104 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,313.19 · official $5,313.19 (match) · 3441 history records