Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f64…ba01 sports 1125 markets active 3d ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$674 (-2%) realized −$674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%411W / 713L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$103
14 days−$395
30 days−$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$865
crypto 12% +$78
other 2% −$24
world 2% −$257
politics 0% −$81
economics 0% +$62
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -33.6% -39.9% 26% 26% -22.5%
≤30d 147 -20.5% -28.0% 34% 34% -20.1%
≤90d 517 -20.4% -27.9% 38% 37% -17.5%
all 1124 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 36% -11.8%
10% -27.9% 35% -20.2%
15% -34.9% 34% -27.9%
20% -41.3% 31% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$30 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses411 / 713
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1124 / 1125
History coverage506d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $50 +$48 +95%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$73 +287%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $50 +$56 +112%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$53 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $59 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $40 −$6 -16%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$28 -46%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$98 +194%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $38 −$8 -21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $36 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $58 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $33 +$27 +81%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $54 −$42 -77%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $9 +$10 +106%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $32 −$20 -61%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $35 +$65 +188%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $31 −$27 -89%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $29 +$34 +120%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$15 +37%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $38 +$7 +18%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $48 +$47 +98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $21 +$16 +78%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $99 +$59 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $50 +$49 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $98 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $99 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 25¢ $26 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $106 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 32¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $53 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 85¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $59 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 16¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 14¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 44¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 1 Winner BUY aimclub 55¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 34¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $10 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 88¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $10 5d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $51 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $1.22 (match) · 3010 history records