Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f64…9600
weather · 1025 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,272 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,238 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$205
Realized−$1,238
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses816 / 195
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1011 / 1025
History coverage38d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day78.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 14 History 1011 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$838
14 days−$1,117
30 days−$1,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 96¢ 89¢ $59 $54 −$5 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 97¢ 8¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-92%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 96¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 87¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? No 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 95¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? No 88¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? No 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? No 90¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? No 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $228 +$27 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $80 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$1,196
crypto 2% −$7
world 2% +$15
politics 1% −$50
other 1% −$10
sports 1% −$33
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $26 8m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 89¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 99¢ $230 47m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 99¢ $26 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $17 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 54m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 87¢ $63 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 89¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 634 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 13% -13.1%
≤30d 922 -4.1% -13.2% 84% 13% -13.1%
≤90d 1011 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 14% -13.2%
all 1011 -3.6% -12.8% 81% 14% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 14% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 4% -21.5%
15% -28.8% 2% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.42 · official $200.84 · 3070 history records