Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f65…70b9 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$55
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$13
economics 19% −$1
world 16% +$11
politics 14% −$9
finance 14% −$1
other 8% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +61.8% +46.4% 100% 100% +68.1%
≤30d 9 -4.9% -13.9% 67% 33% +8.6%
≤90d 18 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 22% -19.0%
all 33 -6.8% -15.6% 61% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 15% -10.1%
10% -23.7% 9% -18.7%
15% -31.1% 9% -26.6%
20% -37.8% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage95d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$49 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $112 +$6 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? May 30 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 30 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $47 +$39 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $70 −$55 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $159 −$33 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $159 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 31 $138 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 24 $135 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 23? Mar 24 $131 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 23 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 23 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 23 $696 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 23 $198 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 23 $1,004 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 23 $202 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 95¢ $112 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 24d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? SELL No 4¢ $4 27d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY No 12¢ $12 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $79 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $75 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $76 57d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 67d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 82d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 83d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 83d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $70 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $122 84d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.00 · official $143.00 (match) · 98 history records