Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2f6d…623a finance 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$214 (+11%) realized +$196 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%31W / 18L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$121
14 days+$65
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 49% +$133
tech 26% +$85
other 16% +$31
sports 9% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +44.2% +30.5% 82% 82% +38.4%
≤30d 41 +8.4% -1.9% 61% 59% +0.3%
≤90d 49 +11.0% +0.5% 63% 61% +3.7%
all 49 +11.0% +0.5% 63% 61% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 61% +3.7%
10% -9.2% 49% -6.2%
15% -17.9% 45% -15.3%
20% -26.0% 31% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses31 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)49 / 69
History coverage45d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 78¢ $150 $249 +$99 (+66%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Yes 37¢ 76¢ $34 $70 +$36 (+106%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 22 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 49¢ 61¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 22 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 90¢ 76¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Yes 16¢ 54¢ $8 $25 +$18 (+234%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+55%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $292 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 33¢ 2¢ $90 $6 −$84 (-94%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-90%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 27¢ 7¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-74%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 23 $16 +$18 +113%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 23 $46 +$38 +83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +45%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $21 +$38 +187%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? Jun 17 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $82.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in June? Jun 09 $10 +$12 +117%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$30 +195%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $31 +$43 +139%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 30 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 30 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? May 30 $50 +$5 +9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 30 $10 +$4 +43%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? May 30 $60 +$8 +13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 29 $40 +$12 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $41 +$19 +47%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 29 $31 +$25 +82%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 29 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 28 $46 −$11 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $16 −$4 -24%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $36 +$28 +80%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 11 2026? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 22 $30 −$26 -86%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $36 +$52 +145%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 21 $41 +$26 +64%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 11 2026? May 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 in May? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in May? May 11 $30 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 46m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 69¢ $40 28h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 28h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 28h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 9¢ $5 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 28h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 28h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $292 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY No 88¢ $25 44h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 44h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? SELL Yes 68¢ $31 44h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 57¢ $20 44h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 5d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 5d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.50 · official $698.10 (match) · 143 history records