Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f6d…930a sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$20
14 days−$15
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$87
other 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 55 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 44% -24.0%
≤90d 73 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 37% -26.1%
all 73 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 37% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 37% -26.1%
10% -30.3% 36% -33.2%
15% -37.1% 32% -39.7%
20% -43.2% 27% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 45
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage70d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $23 −$12 -51%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $2 +$3 +157%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $3 +$3 +128%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $3 +$4 +121%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 07 $5 +$2 +47%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $4 +$4 +110%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $2 +$3 +126%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $5 +$5 +107%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $4 −$3 -67%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $5 +$4 +72%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $11 +$2 +23%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $7 −$4 -62%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $4 +$4 +81%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $3 +$1 +28%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $1 +$2 +185%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $6 +$8 +123%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent May 31 $2 +$1 +68%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Derbyshire May 31 $4 −$3 -98%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire May 31 $4 +$1 +15%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Thailand vs Malaysia May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $18 +$5 +30%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $8 −$4 -49%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $1 +$6 +601%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Surrey May 29 $10 −$2 -20%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Yorkshire May 29 $4 +$3 +82%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $2 +$2 +75%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $20 −$1 -6%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $13 +$2 +13%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Sierra Leone vs Rwand May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $12 −$2 -13%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $15 +$1 +5%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $11 −$1 -9%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $22 −$12 -55%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $46 −$23 -51%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Slovenia vs Guernsey May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $2 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $2 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $0 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 19¢ $3 2d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Kent 30¢ $1 6d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent SELL Kent 30¢ $1 6d
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire BUY Worcestershire 38¢ $2 6d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Kent 57¢ $2 6d
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire BUY Durham 47¢ $3 6d
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire BUY Worcestershire 40¢ $3 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 10¢ $6 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 18¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 18¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 20¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 31¢ $2 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 69¢ $5 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 32¢ $3 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 68¢ $5 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 43¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 47¢ $3 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 60¢ $5 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $3 7d
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex SELL Essex 97¢ $5 8d
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan SELL Glamorgan 100¢ $6 8d
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire SELL Leicestershire 99¢ $6 8d
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan BUY Glamorgan 43¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.11 · official $3.11 (match) · 330 history records