Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f76…9798 sports 979 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$822 (-3%) realized −$740 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%416W / 534L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$58
14 days+$173
30 days−$1,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$162
other 23% −$601
world 1% −$261
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -12.8% -21.1% 42% 41% -6.9%
≤30d 260 -34.5% -40.8% 32% 31% -21.0%
≤90d 950 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 43% -13.0%
all 950 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 43% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 43% -13.0%
10% -15.2% 43% -21.3%
15% -23.4% 42% -28.9%
20% -30.9% 39% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized−$740
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses416 / 534
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions16
Markets (closed)950 / 979
History coverage88d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 950 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 77¢ 100¢ $149 $193 +$44 (+29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $80 $59 −$21 (-26%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-33%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $22 −$12 (-36%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$19 (-49%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 52¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$61 +80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$82 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $223 +$77 +35%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $313 −$11 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$11 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$24 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $91 +$50 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$22 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$56 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $122 +$105 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$32 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$24 +78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$13 -26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $177 −$175 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $129 +$4 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 −$32 -55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $175 +$113 +64%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$28 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$26 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $36 −$25 -70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$29 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $150 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $24 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $25 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $28 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 3¢ $10 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $76 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $300 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $52 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $131 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $133 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $40 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 46¢ $20 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $5 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 29h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $15 29h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 15¢ $15 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $4 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $20 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.28 · official $673.39 (match) · 2250 history records