Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f77…9da4 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,833 (+42%) realized +$5,699 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,717per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$5,690
sports 2% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +36.5%
≤30d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +36.5%
≤90d 3 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +36.5%
all 3 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% +36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 67% +36.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 67% +23.4%
15% -16.2% 67% +11.5%
20% -24.4% 33% +0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,902 vs −$100 · ×29.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×58.04 per $1 lost it wins $58.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,634
Realized+$5,699
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,717
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,176 +$176 (+18%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 67¢ 100¢ $300 $448 +$148 (+49%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,317 +$1,229 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9,799 +$4,575 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $303 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $707 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,334 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $7,039 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,633.79 · official $2,633.79 (match) · 23 history records