Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f77…4b79
crypto · 215 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$221 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses121 / 85
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)206 / 215
History coverage25d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 9 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$125
14 days−$128
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 81¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 46¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 50¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$35 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$45 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$56 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +30%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $32 +$11 +33%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$10 -78%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $12 −$4 -33%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $23 +$7 +30%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $9 +$5 +53%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $138 −$7 -5%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $9 −$3 -38%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $11 +$3 +31%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $29 −$20 -68%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$29 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$65 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$57 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $199 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $151 +$130 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $135 −$40 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $450 −$112 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $189 +$97 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $167 +$121 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% +$55
sports 6% −$33
other 2% −$8
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 44m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 49m
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $3 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $4 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $9 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $47 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $9 4h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 4h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +1.1% -8.6% 54% 52% -13.5%
≤30d 206 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -9.3%
≤90d 206 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -9.3%
all 206 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 52% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -18.0%
15% -21.4% 34% -25.9%
20% -29.1% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.40 · official $98.65 (match) · 829 history records