Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2F 0x2f77…aef3 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$106 (+25%) realized +$109 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate50%10W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day44.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	50%	45%	-21.9%
≤30d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	50%	45%	-21.9%
≤90d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	50%	45%	-21.9%
all	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	50%	45%	-21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-27.0%	45%	-21.9%
10% ← realistic here	-33.9%	40%	-29.4%
15%	-40.3%	35%	-36.2%
20%	-46.2%	20%	-42.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -50% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized+$109

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses10 / 10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day44.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	51¢	44¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 26	$11	+$3	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 26	$21	−$20	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 26	$27	−$5	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 26	$22	−$20	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 26	$22	+$4	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$11	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 26	$22	−$20	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 26	$76	−$20	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 26	$5	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 26	$60	−$5	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 26	$22	+$15	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 26	$15	+$6	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 26	$25	+$12	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 26	$4	+$3	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$4	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 26	$34	+$16	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 26	$3	−$2	-92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$21	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$13	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$11	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$21	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Down	75¢	$31	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$22	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$22	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	32¢	$6	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$11	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$20	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$11	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$32	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$22	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$21	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$22	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$66	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$54	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$6	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$92	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$54	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$15	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.06 · official $19.80 · 44 history records