Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f78…a0a0 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+6%) realized +$53 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$16
finance 39% +$31
politics 21% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤30d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤90d 3 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 33% -1.2%
all 6 +7.5% -2.8% 100% 17% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 17% -2.9%
10% -12.1% 0% -12.2%
15% -20.6% 0% -20.7%
20% -28.4% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage246d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 22 $117 +$22 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 07 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $111 +$4 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 13 $117 +$10 +8%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 02 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $162 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $134 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $139 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $117 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 95¢ $114 67d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $111 98d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 77¢ $17 187d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $31 187d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $117 195d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 94¢ $94 227d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 95¢ $85 239d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 92¢ $69 245d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 92¢ $77 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.61 · official $151.61 (match) · 203 history records