Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f7a…6f03 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$130 (+4%) realized +$154 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$167
crypto 4% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 33% -1.7%
≤30d 4 -17.8% -25.6% 75% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 6 -20.2% -27.8% 67% 33% -4.7%
all 15 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 40% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 40% -4.6%
10% -26.7% 33% -13.8%
15% -33.8% 27% -22.1%
20% -40.3% 13% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$33 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$1,349
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage226d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $1,373 $1,349 −$24 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $390 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $363 +$27 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $300 +$63 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10AM ET Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 16 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 16 $25 +$1 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $5 +$6 +114%
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? Nov 28 $500 +$137 +27%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $332 −$77 -23%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $171 +$62 +36%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 21 $50 −$28 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,379 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $391 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $390 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $391 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $363 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $300 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $42 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 177d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $11 178d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $5 184d
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $637 211d
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $500 212d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 34¢ $255 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $233 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $233 214d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 218d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $150 225d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 225d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 53¢ $99 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,348.99 · official $1,348.99 (match) · 35 history records