Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f7a…59a1
sports · 51 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$227
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)38 / 51
History coverage105d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 13 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 50¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $105 +$9 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 13 $11 −$9 -84%
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the Jun 13 $11 −$7 -71%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -13%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -22%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $16 −$10 -63%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $106 −$59 -56%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $2 +$10 +487%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $11 +$5 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 +$2 +79%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $11 +$12 +115%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $11 +$37 +348%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $99 −$74 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$77 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 +37%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 09 $2 $0 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -87%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$24
other 33% −$8
politics 3% −$16
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $114 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el SELL Yes 10¢ $2 14h
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the SELL Yes 20¢ $3 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 38h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 45h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 46h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 47¢ $9 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 2d
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Varvara Lepchenko 54¢ $5 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 64¢ $11 4d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 16¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.2% -6.6% 31% 27% -23.2%
≤30d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 31% -18.1%
≤90d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 31% -18.1%
all 38 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 32% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 32% -18.1%
10% -18.6% 32% -25.9%
15% -26.5% 32% -33.1%
20% -33.7% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.46 · official $227.46 (match) · 94 history records