Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2f7a…66fb other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$6
politics 34% −$5
culture 13% −$3
world 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,015) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage87d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1,331 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jun 22 $1,218 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 22 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $998 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,015 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $1,008 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $126 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $75 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Mar 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,336 22m
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 31m
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 41m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,282 51m
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $229 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $990 1h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $324 2h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,315 2h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 23h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,338 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 23h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,295 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 23h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 24h
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $213 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 24h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $868 24h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $325 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 24h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,195 25h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $71 66d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? SELL No 99¢ $35 66d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $43 66d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 99¢ $17 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records