Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f7b…8927 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$225 (-6%) realized −$75 · open −$150
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$432
14 days−$402
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$712
other 23% +$257
crypto 9% +$168
world 7% +$87
politics 7% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% -53.8%
≤30d 4 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 50% -40.8%
≤90d 4 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 50% -40.8%
all 24 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 54% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 54% -16.9%
10% -22.6% 50% -24.9%
15% -30.1% 50% -32.1%
20% -36.9% 33% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$123 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage593d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 35¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $450 −$445 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $318 +$132 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $280 +$30 +11%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-05? Sep 06 $32 +$23 +72%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality Jun 22 $224 −$116 -52%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZ Jun 22 $130 +$61 +47%
Will Arsenal vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ Jun 21 $259 −$57 -22%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 20 $116 +$57 +49%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. MOUZ Jun 14 $48 +$27 +57%
Knicks vs. Pistons May 03 $85 −$68 -80%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? May 03 $15 +$13 +89%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-27? Apr 27 $30 +$38 +127%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-01-19? Apr 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Apr 27 $18 +$12 +70%
Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27? Dec 24 $327 +$168 +51%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $400 +$327 +82%
Will the match between Georgia and Ukraine end in a draw? Nov 16 $102 +$86 +85%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $183 +$78 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $122 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $450 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $450 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $318 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $310 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 90¢ $280 7d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $56 282d
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-05? BUY No 58¢ $32 286d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZ BUY The MongolZ 68¢ $130 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality BUY MOUZ 41¢ $108 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality SELL Vitality 61¢ $108 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality BUY Vitality 65¢ $116 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ BUY The MongolZ 74¢ $86 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ SELL FaZe 27¢ $86 362d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ BUY FaZe 54¢ $173 363d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL No 52¢ $173 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY No 35¢ $116 364d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. MOUZ SELL MOUZ 100¢ $75 369d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. MOUZ BUY MOUZ 64¢ $48 369d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 383d
Will Arsenal vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 411d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 411d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 83¢ $17 417d
Knicks vs. Pistons SELL Knicks 16¢ $17 417d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Knicks 64¢ $68 417d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-27? SELL No 100¢ $68 417d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-27? BUY No 44¢ $30 417d
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 59¢ $18 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 53 history records