Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f7c…3569 culture 10 markets active 200d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 58% $0
world 42% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 +3.4% -6.4% 30% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 10% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 10% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? Nov 30 $3 +$1 +32%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 30 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 27 $410 $0 +0%
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar Nov 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 27 $158 $0 +0%
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Nov 27 $166 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 27 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $19 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $21 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar SELL Yes $12 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? SELL Yes $23 199d
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa SELL Yes $25 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $21 199d
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $19 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar BUY Yes $12 199d
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa BUY Yes $25 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $23 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar SELL Yes $12 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? SELL Yes $23 199d
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa SELL Yes $25 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $21 199d
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $19 199d
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $19 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $21 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar BUY Yes $12 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $23 199d
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa BUY Yes $25 199d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $1 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $21 199d
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL Yes $65 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar SELL Yes $12 199d
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa SELL Yes $25 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? SELL Yes $23 199d
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $65 199d
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes $21 199d
Will Mafia: The Old Country win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awar BUY Yes $12 199d
Will Split Fiction win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes $23 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records