Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f7d…b809 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$11 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate72%28W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$31
crypto 20% +$11
finance 19% +$12
world 9% +$3
economics 5% −$2
politics 5% +$2
tech 3% +$2
sports 1% +$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +10.0% -0.5% 86% 29% -1.1%
≤90d 39 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 23% -6.1%
all 39 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 23% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 23% -6.1%
10% -22.2% 8% -15.1%
15% -29.7% 3% -23.3%
20% -36.6% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses28 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions36
Markets (closed)39 / 75
History coverage90d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-27%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 75¢ 16¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 55¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 83¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 77¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 04 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $32 +$8 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $18 +$4 +21%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $16 +$2 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $23 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $11 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 01 $23 +$1 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 22 $44 −$14 -32%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $23 −$7 -30%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $20 −$9 -44%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 09 $55 +$3 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $2 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $105 +$18 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $25 +$2 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 30 $52 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $44 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 88¢ $8 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 5d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 5d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $7 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $32 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $9 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $8 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.71 · official $72.31 · 293 history records