Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f7d…29f3 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$22 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.8% -16.5% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 6 -7.8% -16.5% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤90d 6 -7.8% -16.5% 50% 50% -17.5%
all 6 -7.8% -16.5% 50% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 50% -17.5%
10% -24.5% 50% -25.4%
15% -31.8% 33% -32.6%
20% -38.5% 33% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 59¢ 68¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $21 +$12 +55%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $27 −$2 -6%
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 59¢ $33 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $33 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $21 2h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $21 2h
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 38¢ $12 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 99¢ $12 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $7 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 51¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 33¢ $2 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 28¢ $6 4h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 57¢ $12 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $10 4h
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 80¢ $26 4h
Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 60¢ $20 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.76 · official $28.39 · 16 history records