Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f7e…d49b other 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized +$1,099 · open −$1,120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%110W / 87L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$399
14 days+$106
30 days−$2,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$3,736
politics 15% −$1,199
world 8% +$173
sports 6% −$758
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.1% +25.8% 100% 100% +35.1%
≤30d 63 +6.9% -3.3% 48% 48% -29.4%
≤90d 130 +40.6% +27.2% 58% 46% -10.9%
all 197 +64.3% +48.7% 56% 43% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.7% 43% -7.2%
10% +34.5% 40% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here +21.5% 34% -24.2%
20% +9.6% 28% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +105% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$221 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized+$1,099
Unrealized−$1,120
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses110 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions6
Markets (closed)197 / 203
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$542
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 96¢ $385 $472 +$86 (+22%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? No 54¢ 97¢ $26 $46 +$20 (+79%)
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes 46¢ 68¢ $28 $41 +$13 (+48%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $46 $38 −$8 (-17%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 2¢ $1,261 $29 −$1,233 (-98%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $394 +$164 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $394 +$231 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $332 +$409 +124%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,864 −$1,013 -54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $94 +$162 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $28 +$61 +221%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $130 +$137 +105%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $24 +$15 +60%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $30 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $80 +$93 +116%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $123 +$98 +79%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $143 +$105 +73%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $6 +$46 +750%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $45 +$52 +116%
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CD Real Tomayapo: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $309 −$276 -89%
CDT RealOruro vs. GV CD San José: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $282 −$251 -89%
Bamin Real Potosí vs. GV CD San José: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $270 −$241 -89%
Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5) Jun 10 $265 −$236 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $657 +$343 +52%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $331 −$331 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,957 −$66 -3%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral electio Jun 08 $2 +$6 +304%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $3 +$2 +44%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $21 −$1 -3%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Tristan Schoolkate vs. Lloyd Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $7 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Schoolkate vs Harris Jun 08 $13 $0 -3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $720 −$720 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $97 +$42 +43%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $86 +$56 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $390 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $442 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $394 2d
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $394 3d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $373 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $226 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $251 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $332 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,864 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $56 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $55 9d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 11¢ $10 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $53 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $27 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $94 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $77 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $12 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $28 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 24¢ $27 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $12 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $14 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.78 · official $630.93 (match) · 3500 history records