Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f80…47ef sports 39 markets active 22h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,830 (+93%) realized +$1,830 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$2
14 days+$16
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,829
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 43% -15.2%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 45% -1.9%
≤90d 36 -14.7% -22.9% 39% 39% -26.0%
all 38 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 42% +77.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 42% +77.9%
10% -26.0% 42% +60.8%
15% -33.1% 42% +45.3%
20% -39.7% 42% +31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +97% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$6 · ×20.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.25 per $1 lost it wins $15.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$1,830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage135d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $4 +$5 +108%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +93%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +90%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +105%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $7 +$6 +93%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +96%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4 +$4 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $4 +$4 +96%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $4 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +95%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $4 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4 +$4 +101%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Mar 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Mar 21 $27 +$28 +104%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 20 $17 +$10 +56%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Feb 03 $1,650 +$1,861 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 21h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 43h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 2d
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $5 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $5 5d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 6d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 7d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $0 8d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $3 8d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 9d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $7 12d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 13d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $4 14d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 15d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $0 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 17d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 18d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Tien 52¢ $4 19d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $4 20d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $4 21d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ $1 22d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales 51¢ $3 22d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Arnaldi 53¢ $4 23d
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 50¢ $4 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $4 25d
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.97 · official $74.97 (match) · 100 history records