Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f85…7e32 crypto 1697 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$354 (+8%) realized +$354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%1576W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day215.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$26
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1287 -0.9% -10.4% 93% 14% -10.3%
≤30d 1696 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 17% -9.9%
≤90d 1696 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 17% -9.9%
all 1696 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 17% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 6% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1576 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1696 / 1697
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day215.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $1.57 (match) · 3500 history records