Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f88…2dd1 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$42 (+12%) realized +$31 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$38
economics 20% −$2
other 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +57.3% +42.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 2 +57.3% +42.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤90d 11 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 55% +3.2%
all 15 +2.3% -7.4% 87% 40% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 40% +0.4%
10% -16.3% 13% -9.2%
15% -24.4% 13% -17.9%
20% -31.8% 7% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×9.56 per $1 lost it wins $9.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage97d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 39¢ 76¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+94%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 84¢ 87¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Yes 80¢ 44¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-45%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? Yes 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +18%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $12 +$12 +97%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 06 $61 +$6 +10%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $17 +$1 +8%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? Apr 30 $1 $0 +41%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting Apr 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? Apr 28 $19 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 10 $25 +$5 +21%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? Apr 10 $16 +$3 +16%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 02 $32 +$1 +2%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting Mar 18 $17 +$2 +11%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? Mar 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $6 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $1 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 11h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $5 41h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 84¢ $9 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 5d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $21 9d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 39d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 39d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? SELL No 99¢ $2 45d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 99¢ $6 46d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 99¢ $10 46d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? SELL No 99¢ $12 47d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? SELL No 99¢ $7 48d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? SELL No 90¢ $0 54d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 97¢ $1 58d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 97¢ $1 58d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? BUY No 96¢ $19 60d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 96¢ $4 60d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 61d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 61d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 61d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 95¢ $4 61d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 61d
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 61d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting SELL Yes 94¢ $1 62d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $0 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.20 · official $59.20 (match) · 76 history records