Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f89…14e8 crypto 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$524 (-3%) realized −$524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%247W / 50L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day206.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$512
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+78.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +78.7% +61.7% 76% 11% -18.0%
≤30d 297 +97.6% +78.8% 83% 10% -14.0%
≤90d 297 +97.6% +78.8% 83% 10% -14.0%
all 297 +97.6% +78.8% 83% 10% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.8% 10% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here +61.7% 8% -22.2%
15% +46.1% 8% -29.7%
20% +31.7% 8% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +98% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses247 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage13d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day206.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$17 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$24 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $78 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $133 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $192 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $266 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $83 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $56 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3016 history records