Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f8c…da45
crypto · 526 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$324 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$323 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses134 / 388
Open positions4
Markets (closed)522 / 526
Avg bet$5
Trades / day78.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 522 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$127
14 days−$323
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$32 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$6 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$323
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -20.5% -28.1% 30% 30% -17.5%
≤30d 522 -29.3% -36.0% 26% 25% -24.1%
≤90d 522 -29.3% -36.0% 26% 25% -24.1%
all 522 -29.3% -36.0% 26% 25% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 25% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 25% -31.4%
15% -47.7% 25% -38.0%
20% -52.9% 23% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.41 · official $3.41 (match) · 1081 history records