Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f8d…cf69 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,685
7 days+$1,195
14 days+$1,195
30 days+$1,120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,571
other 16% −$53
culture 3% −$291
crypto 2% −$170
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +6.5% -3.7% 43% 41% +2.1%
≤30d 86 +1.8% -7.9% 41% 40% +1.3%
≤90d 99 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 41% -0.3%
all 99 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 41% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 41% -0.3%
10% -12.6% 40% -9.8%
15% -21.0% 36% -18.5%
20% -28.8% 31% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$66 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 56
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage42d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$295 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,312 +$663 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,007 +$262 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$210 +206%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$54 +53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $403 +$125 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$213 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $202 +$88 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$72 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$168 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$131 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$142 +139%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $195 +$368 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$421 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$101 +99%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $169 −$167 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$98 +137%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$48 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$19 -37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$71 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,975 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,007 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,269 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,007 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $312 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $155 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 6h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $528 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records