Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2f90…90cc crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,466 (-15%) realized −$13,549 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,660per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,611
7 days+$7,574
14 days+$7,574
30 days+$2,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$4,438
world 17% +$7,055
politics 16% −$13,917
other 15% +$3,863
sports 11% −$3,013
tech 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +90.2% +72.0% 83% 83% +73.6%
≤30d 7 +63.0% +47.5% 71% 71% +4.9%
≤90d 7 +63.0% +47.5% 71% 71% +4.9%
all 52 -4.9% -14.0% 44% 42% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 42% -17.2%
10% -22.2% 42% -25.1%
15% -29.7% 40% -32.3%
20% -36.6% 35% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,248) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,514 vs −$1,567 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized−$13,549
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage516d
Avg bet$1,660
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $600 $757 +$157 (+26%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 67¢ 17¢ $100 $26 −$74 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $613 +$1,493 +244%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $2,036 +$3,028 +149%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,262 +$2,378 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,317 +$964 +73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,395 −$5,395 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $10,746 −$10,746 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1,000 +$1,547 +155%
Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong Mar 17 $541 +$436 +81%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $6,600 −$4,069 -62%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $2,973 −$2,801 -94%
Miami Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Leandro Riedi Mar 17 $1,000 +$475 +48%
Miami Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Diane Parry Mar 17 $1,500 +$507 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 16 $300 −$191 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 16 $3,068 −$2,701 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 16 $1,100 +$528 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 16 $946 −$931 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 16 $1,300 +$1,924 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 16 $964 −$957 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 16 $4,825 −$4,783 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 16 $1,000 −$652 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 16 $2,500 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 16 $2,600 +$1,385 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 16 $1,000 −$984 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 16 $5,000 +$3,613 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 16 $3,000 −$2,964 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 16 $3,000 +$1,271 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 16 $1,100 −$309 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 16 $2,000 −$1,969 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 16 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 16 $200 −$68 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 16 $400 +$601 +150%
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech? Mar 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 16 $748 −$748 -100%
Will France win? Mar 14 $3,000 +$1,995 +66%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 05 $1,000 −$194 -19%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $4,000 +$2,423 +61%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Mar 01 $100 +$146 +146%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $2,248 +$7,905 +352%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1,000 +$1,064 +106%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $309 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $308 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $2,036 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,262 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,317 4d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,235 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $92 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.10 · official $703.41 · 327 history records