Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f91…0ac2 politics 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 40% −$16
sports 4% −$9
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.9% -10.4% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 111 -2.0% -11.4% 5% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×11.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage115d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $444 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $195 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $255 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $453 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $448 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $416 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $469 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $414 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 33h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 22d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $245 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $195 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $195 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $193 27d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 29d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 29d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 30d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 351 history records