Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f98…e397
weather · 662 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$802 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$697 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$333
Realized+$697
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses550 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)658 / 662
History coverage128d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 658 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$38
14 days+$95
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? No 80¢ 89¢ $144 $160 +$16 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? No 92¢ 90¢ $99 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 61¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 16? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? No 65¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$14 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $88 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$6 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $106 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $172 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $346 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $22 +$8 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $147 +$17 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $73 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$18 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $481 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$34 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $72 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $355 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 −$46 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $36 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $57 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 +$14 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $46 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 2? Jun 02 $84 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $56 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $34 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$708
crypto 0% −$5
sports 0% +$15
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 54¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $26 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $104 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $34 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $71 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $38 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $18 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $115 45h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $100 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $37 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $29 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $29 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $97 46h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $251 46h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $84 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.4% -19.9% 71% 47% -10.7%
≤30d 107 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 57% -7.1%
≤90d 461 +2.6% -7.2% 83% 44% -9.3%
all 658 +2.5% -7.3% 84% 36% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 36% -8.4%
10% -16.1% 17% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 8% -25.2%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.98 · official $332.98 (match) · 2143 history records