Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f99…e0d5 other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$277 (+5%) realized +$288 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%16W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days−$376
14 days−$376
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$225
world 12% +$254
crypto 4% −$156
sports 3% −$22
finance 3% −$185
politics 1% +$90
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -12.2% -20.6% 14% 13% -17.6%
≤30d 86 -12.2% -20.6% 14% 13% -17.6%
≤90d 86 -12.2% -20.6% 14% 13% -17.6%
all 96 +16.0% +4.9% 17% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 15% -8.9%
10% -5.1% 14% -17.6%
15% -14.3% 14% -25.6%
20% -22.7% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$30 · ×5.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses16 / 80
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage127d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $800 $794 −$6 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 +$567 +1104%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 +$207 +577%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $27 +$220 +822%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 −$101 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$51 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$124 +241%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $123 −$31 -26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$317 -63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$222 +44%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -29%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$79 +1529%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Scream 7" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $807 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $619 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 77¢ $243 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 67¢ $246 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $27 26h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.52 · official $888.52 (match) · 335 history records